Having covered Black Friday extensively for the past eight years, we at GottaDeal.com are in a better position than nearly anyone else to offer predictions for Black Friday 2011. Over the years we've noticed trends in the deals offered by the major retailers and can offer a glimpse into what we believe will be the most popular deals and hottest items. We'll also give you some predictions for the actual prices you'll see these items selling at this Black Friday based on our research along with some general holiday shopping predictions for this year.

Holiday Shopping

Last year continued the trend of down years for many retailers, both traditional and online. This holiday season including Black Friday is shaping up to be an important final opportunity for retailers to make up for the lackluster sales they've had the rest of the year. This year we've been contacted by a very high number of retailers who want to make sure their holiday sales are posted on the site, more than any previous year. They realize how significant Black Friday will be this year and are taking steps to maximize their exposure to their customers. Their planning for Black Friday has also started much earlier in the year than in previous years.

While we likely won't begin to see a steady stream of actual Black Friday ads until the middle of October, we are predicting that while retailers will try to boost sales with their Black Friday ads, the actual deals will likely be very similar to last year. As has happened in the last couple of years, we expect the deals overall to lack that "wow" factor that the sale ads had 4 to 5 years ago. While there were some nice deals last year, going by sales figures as well as the opinions of the die-hard Black Friday shoppers on our message boards, most stores failed to get consumers excited. We're also expecting stock levels to be slightly down from last year, as retailers don't want to stock as much product with uncertainty clouding the shopping season. Therefore it may be more important than ever to get in line earlier to score the best deals.

One trend that will continue is the extension of Black Friday from one day into a prolonged period of sales. Again this year there were several major national retailers that had "Black Friday in July" sales earlier this year. These sales were not really comparable to the regular Black Friday sales, but the trend of using the term "Black Friday" for sales that aren't specifically on November 25th will likely continue as retailers pull out all the stops to get people in the stores. A trend that started a few years ago that we expect to continue is for stores to have a few Black Friday-level deals in their weekly ads beginning as early as October, and some will likely reference Black Friday in some way to draw interest. But the hottest deals and the largest number of them will still be on the actual Black Friday, as always.

With Black Friday being exactly a month from Christmas, retailers will have to get consumers shopping earlier rather than counting on Black Friday and the few remaining weekends in December to provide most of their sales. Online retailers, and brick & mortar retailers with e-commerce sites have the advantage here as they can quickly prepare and promote online sales leading up to Black Friday. These sales are fully covered on GottaDeal.com. We also predict that stores will once again heavily embrace social networking this year as a part of their strategy for the holiday season. Look for exclusive deals and contests to appear on stores’ Facebook pages and Twitter accounts. We expect several stores to give sneak peeks of their Black Friday ad via these means as well, although we may beat them to it and have their ad already posted here on GottaDeal.com.

Let's have a look at specific items that should prove to be popular this year:

HDTVs

HDTVs have been popular Black Friday items in the past few years, we expect that this holiday season will be another big year as prices have continued to drop since last year. 3D TVs have been on the market long enough that we may finally start seeing some deep discounts on older 3D models on Black Friday this year.

With HDTVs, quality can vary greatly from the cheaper to the more expensive units. In many cases, the lowest-priced models on Black Friday are stripped-down models lacking some of the “bells and whistles” of the higher priced versions. That doesn't necessarily mean that these deals aren't great, just be aware of what you are buying and have realistic expectations for the performance you'll get out of it.

The two primary types of flat panel HDTVs in the Black Friday ads will be LCD (including LED) and Plasma. Plasma HDTVs tend to be cheaper going by cost per inch. Many manufacturers are turning more to the LCD technology for their new models. The maximum resolution of an HDTV is also something that you'll see in the ads. Most HDTVs will either be 1080p or 720p. These numbers represent the maximum lines of horizontal resolution that the TV can display at once. 1080p is the native resolution for things like Blu-ray, some video games and other sources, and being higher resolution means that these models will cost more.

LCD HDTVs can come with different refresh rates. As of a couple years ago, most models were 60Hz. Newer models are 120Hz or 240Hz or even higher. Most consumers won't notice the difference between the different rates, although on some source materials such as movies shot on film, it can be somewhat noticeable. Newer technology such as LED-backlit HDTVs have hit the market and have come down in price enough that we can now recommend them as well as expect to see some deals in the ads this year on these newer models. Full LED-backlit models are preferred over the cheaper edge-lit LED models.

Let’s take a look at some predictions for prices. We fully expect to see the cheapest 42" LCD HDTVs in the $249 to $299 range this year. During the last few months on GottaDeal.com, we've posted deals for 42" HDTVs for as low as $349, so it's completely realistic to expect deals in Black Friday ads for under $300 on a lower-quality model. These cheaper HDTVs will likely be 720p and will lack features found in more expensive models. We expect prices on 50" plasma and LCD HDTVs to also fall this Black Friday, perhaps to somewhere around $399.

Stepping up to the full 1080p resolution will cost a little bit more, but not as much as in previous years. On GottaDeal.com we've posted 42" 1080p LCD HDTVs for under $400 recently, so it would not surprise us to see a 42" 1080p LCD HDTV in Black Friday ads for around $349. 47" and 50" versions should be available for around $399 and $449 respectively.

Bargains on smaller HDTVs will also be plentiful this year. This could be the year that we see 32" LCD HDTVs break the $150 price barrier. For those looking to replace smaller bedroom TVs with HDTVs, expect great deals on smaller LCD HDTVs. We expect to see a 19" LCD HDTV for around $69 this year as well, so it should be a great year to outfit your entire home with HD-capable displays.

While Black Friday is a great time to buy the loss-leader, lower-end HDTVs, if you are looking for a deal on a higher quality, name-brand HDTV, the best time to buy is typically in early to mid-December as retailers ramp up the deals to get those last minute sales before the holidays. And even if you miss those deals, the pre-Super Bowl TV deals are also very attractive.

Laptops, Netbooks & Tablets

One of the biggest hot Black Friday ad items traditionally has been the ultra-cheap laptop. The recent surge in popularity of tablets has taken sales away from traditional laptops, but the bargain-basement laptop is still the quintessential Black Friday deal. Desktop computers, while still popular, are not as "sexy" as they've been in the past. They have become almost disposable because of price drops and the fact that it doesn't take much in terms of features to handle what 99% of the general public uses a desktop for in their daily lives.

If you are considering purchasing a laptop or netbook on Black Friday this year, we can't stress enough how important it is to decide what features you need and what you will be using the computer for. There will be cheap laptops, but if they don't fit your needs, as good of a deal they may seem on the surface, you will end up disappointed soon after you purchase it. Questions to consider: what size screen do you need? Is weight an important factor? What about battery life? Do you need to be able to burn DVDs on the laptop? Some parts of the laptop (such as RAM memory) can always be upgraded later on, but other components such as screen size, battery life and processor are usually permanent.

The "classic" Black Friday laptop the last few years has had a 15.6" widescreen LCD display, a dual-core processor, 3GB to 4GB of memory, 320GB to 500GB hard drive and DVD burning drive, along with standard features such as WiFi, modem and ethernet port. Laptops like these have been available all year long from retailers such as Best Buy, Dell and Staples for as low as $299. Therefore we predict we'll see this level of laptop in Black Friday ads for around $199 this year.

Models with upgraded components should also be very good deals this year. Back-to-school sales were down and that factor, combined with lower prices for the individual components should lead to great bargains this year. Look for a model with an Intel Core i5 or Core i7 processor, 6GB of RAM and a Blu-ray drive for around $499.

While last year was predicted to be “the year of the netbook”, over the past year they've been down in popularity in favor of tablets. We've posted deals on GottaDeal.com during the year for these netbooks for as low as $79. As with regular laptops, these mini machines vary greatly in specs and features. We expect to see the cheapest of these netbooks for around $79 this Black Friday, but there will be deals on models with better features. Realize that these are not typically meant to be your primary machine. They are great for light tasks such as web browsing and e-mail, but the small screen size and smaller keyboard make long-term use uncomfortable in most cases.

The typical model netbook these days has a 10” display, Intel Atom processor, 1GB of memory and a 160GB hard drive. Some of these models come with a webcam built-in as well. These models consistently have been offered as low as $199 during the year, so we would not be surprised to see a similar model in a Black Friday ad for around $149 or less.

Tablets, such as the popular Apple iPad, are also going to be one of, if not the hottest item this holiday season. While there won't be big discounts on the iPad itself (expect free bundled items or gift cards with purchase), other tablets will be deeply discounted. We wouldn't be surprised to see a smaller 7” Android tablet selling for around $49 this year. The cheapest 10" Android tablets will be available in the $149 range. Also expect discounts and special offers on the more popular Android tablets such as the various Samsung Galaxy Tabs, Motorola XOOM and many others. As with laptops and netbooks, be sure to check the specs.

Desktop computers will continue to sell, however we're reaching the point of diminishing returns as any budget desktop bought last Black Friday will be just as good as most advertised this year. For 99% of daily tasks (internet, e-mail, homework, office work), it doesn't take more than a low-end desktop to handle these tasks. This year we expect a low-level desktop (dual core processor, 4GB of RAM, 500GB hard drive, DVD burner) bundled with a 19" or 20" LCD monitor to be possibly as low as $199. Upgrade to a faster quad-core processor, more RAM, bigger hard drive and a 24" monitor for $100 to $150 more.

Computer Peripherals

As desktops lose favor with consumers as they switch to laptops and netbooks, peripherals for these machines aren't as popular. However we still expect to see deals on LCD monitors around what they were last year as prices have not dropped too much.We are expecting 19" monitors to be in Black Friday ads in the $69-79 range and 22" models for possibly as low as $89. 24" models should be around $119 as well. Models with LED backlighting should also be plentiful this year in the ads.

As with every Black Friday, expect a lot of deals on things like external hard drives, flash drives and mice/keyboard sets. These items always sell well on Black Friday and we expect those trends to continue this year. External hard drives have become very popular recently for backup purposes, and we're expecting 1TB external drives to be around $49.Look for smaller, portable 500GB drives for around $39 this year. 8GB flash drives could be as low as $5. 16GB flash drives should be around $10. Storage is very cheap these days and that fact will be reflected in the ads this year.

One item that can be found at very low prices in Black Friday is a printer. If you are looking for a new printer, Black Friday is your best bet. Look for monochrome laser printers for under $50. All-in-one color inkjets should also be plentiful in the ads, at prices starting around $49. Be sure to consider the costs of buying ink or toner when deciding which model to buy.

GPS Systems

GPS navigation systems were huge several years ago during Black Friday, but since then as most consumers interested in them have bought one, they aren't in demand like they used to be. Prices have continued to drop as new models have been released with incremental feature upgrades such as updated maps, traffic and weather capability and improved, larger displays.

We've posted deals all year long on GottaDeal.com for GPS systems well below $100 and therefore we expect to see a budget GPS system with 3.5" LCD display for $29 to $39 this year on Black Friday, and more name-brand, feature-loaded models from the manufacturers just mentioned for $80-100. Larger models with 5" displays and lifetime traffic and maps service should be around $129 this year. Your best bet is too look for a model with lifetime traffic and map updates as you won't need to pay every few years to get the latest maps. A 4.3” model with these features could be had this year for as low as $99.

Audio & Video

Blu-ray is the standard HD format for movies, and therefore we expect some nice deals on Blu-ray players and movies on Black Friday. We fully expect Blu-ray players to appear in Black Friday ads for as low as $49, and we wouldn't be shocked to see a major retailer like Walmart offer a stripped-down Blu-ray player for even less in their ad this year if they are able to secure enough quantity. While extremely cheap DVD movies have always been a staple of Black Friday, Blu-ray movies have been slow to follow suit, however we expect this year's ads to include some very low prices on Blu-ray movies, especially older titles.

iPods and MP3 players are always a hot seller on Black Friday. Apple will likely be introducing new versions of their popular iPods in the coming months. In most cases, retailers cannot advertise iPods at prices lower than the standard MSRP, so expect to see promotions such as free accessories, free iTunes cards or free store gift cards with the purchase of these music players. Accessories for iPods are also expected to see big price cuts as they do every Black Friday. This includes items such as alarm clocks, docking speaker systems, automotive accessories, cases and headphones.

Cameras & Camcorders

While a few years ago digital cameras were a huge Black Friday item, these days nearly everyone has one and so it takes more than just a cheap price to get people to make a purchase. As one of the most popular online deal sites, we believe digital camera deals are usually better during the year than they are on Black Friday. While going through the ads each year, we always notice cameras on "sale" for prices much more than they can be ordered online. So if you are considering a digital camera, we suggest you follow our online deals instead of relying on Black Friday for the best deals.

Digital camcorders continue to be popular as features are added and both prices and sizes are reduced. The new wave of compact HD-capable camcorders are very popular, and we expect this to be the first year with some very attractive deals on these pocketable models. You can expect to see entry-level pocket HD camcorders in Black Friday ads this year for around $49. Highly-rated units such as those offered by Flip Video, Samsung, Sony and others Sanyo should be popular this year. Expect to see a HD-capable model from these manufacturers for well under $100.

Video Games

Video games should be given a lift this Black Friday thanks to some highly anticipated new games. The recent price cut on the Nintendo 3DS will likely translate into deep discounts on the older models such as the DSi, DS Lite and others. Expect low prices or bundles with free games and accessories.

The Nintendo Wii will be an interesting item this year. With the new Wii U scheduled to be released next year, retailers may want to begin clearing stock of the current Wii Console. Expect deals such as a Wii bundled with a $50 gift card for $149 this holiday season.

Popular games being released this fall should also help sales, although deals for these new games will not be easy to find. Instead, expect promotions such as free accessories, gift cards, point cards or other items with the purchase of selected newer games. Deals on older video game titles will be very good this year as the current set of consoles matures. Look for “greatest hits” games for all major consoles to be on sale in the $10-15 range.

Additional Hot Items

As for what will be hot this year, it's always tough to say. It's likely going to be a combination of the items such as laptops & tablets, HDTVs, toys, video games and home items. With the economy still down, many households are looking to improve their home rather than spend money on vacations or other expenditures. Therefore we expect those items such as appliances, kitchen items, lawn & garden, furniture and bedding to be popular. Many shoppers will be looking to save money on the "basics" and that will likely be reflected in the deals shown in the ads this year.

Online Black Friday Deals

We can't stress enough that to get the best deals on Black Friday or any other day of the year, you have to check online first. At GottaDeal.com we post hundreds of new online deals each week and our forum members post even more every day on the message boards. On Black Friday @ GottaDeal.com, we'll have a continuously updated list of Black Friday ad items that can be purchased online at Black Friday ad prices. Look for this list in mid-November. We urge our visitors to order as many ad items as possible online before leaving the house. It'll save you time, hassle and space in your trunk.

We do expect online retailers to continue to offer amazing deals this quarter as well as they compete with the brick and mortar retailers. Expect big sales and online-only coupons from retailers such as Amazon.com, Overstock.com, Buy.com, Walmart.com, Dell.com and many, many others. And to keep track of these deals, just bookmark our home page at GottaDeal.com where we'll keep you updated on the latest deals throughout the day, every day of the year.